Trading Advisor’s Weblog

The markets were up today with the Nasdaq leading the way.  Going into Memorial Day weekend, I expect a bounce or upward bias in the market with selling continuing once things are back in swing next week.

FSLR - Sold FSLR yesterday, will look for possible re-entry if it moves higher, nice 7% move over the past few days.  The P/E is in the high 40s and the stock will get creamed if oil corrects.

SRS - The SRS for those of you that don’t follow is the ultra short Real Estate index.  Anecdotal information is finally beginning to emerge that the commercial sector in real estate will not survive and thrive as the market has them priced.  The SRS has had a nice bounce off the double bottom around $80.  My expectation is that this will be a lot higher than the Mar top it put in before all this is over.  9 of 10 top holdings in the index were in the red today.  The move on this is going to be long and sweet, now is the time to consider getting in.

Oil - IF there is speculation, expect to see further selling in the USO tomorrow as traders will not want to hold this over the Memorial Day weekend.   If you believe this is a demand driven story, well… good luck I guess.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend if you are done for the day, visit a great site a friend of mine launched if you get a minute natural cures for dog allergies

Initiated Position in DUG at the close today. Stock is hated, reviled by most “oil has topped” investors. Certainly a risk to hold ahead of inventories but it is an initial position and one I can sleep with.

Stocks with huge volume spikes today and will be on my watch list tomorrow:

GRH, HKN, QTWW, LEI, OMNI

Another one to watch: Adolor ADLR received approval from FDA on a long awaited drug they have been co developing, conference call in the AM, stock could show strong activity in the morning.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

DUBAI (Dow Jones)–Iran is storing about 25 million barrels of heavy crude oil in tankers in the Persian Gulf as no buyers are stepping up to the plate, the country’s departing OPECOPECLoading… governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said Tuesday.

“We are using about 10-12 vessels to store the crude,” Ardebili told Dow Jones Newswires in an exclusive interview by phone from Tehran.

The stored crude is “the main proof that the market is oversupplied” and that prices are disconnected from fundamentals, he said.

“I know other countries are building up stocks as well, there are simply no buyers because the market has more than enough oil,” Ardebili, who resigned as the country’s governor to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting CountriesOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
News | Profile | Officers
» Research
earlier this week after over 23 years in the position, said.

However, decreasing production is not an option, he added.

“We believe that this build up should serve at assuring the market that the oil is there if needed,” Ardebili said.

He added that Iran’s current production level is 4.1 million barrels a day, while production capacity is at about 4.3 million barrels a day.

Nymex June crude was trading down 15 cents at $125.65 a barrel on Wednesday, while ICE June Brent was trading down 19 cents at $123.91 a barrel.

-By Majdoline Hatoum, Dow Jones Newswires; +9714-3644964; majdoline.hatoum@dowjones.com

Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

14-05-08 0824GMT

How well do you know FSLR ?
- a P/E of 121
- forward P/E of 53x earnings,
- 38 times Sales,
- 21 times Book Value

Here are three players in the same industry: CSIQ, SOLF, TSL

CSIQ is growing faster than FSLR, but has a forward PE of 17x
Solarfun SOLF is growing faster than FSLR, FPE of 1.9x, yes 1.9x
TSL is growing faster, FPE of 10.

You do the math. Short FSLR, long CSIQ, SOLF, SOL.

get slaughtered.

I find that whenever I get greedy and look to double my returns or make a killing in a trade is when I invariably take a hit.

Slow and steady returns can build a huge portfolio. For instance for a $20,000 portfolio,
$250/day * 22 = $5500 per month, $66,000 per year.

$250/20,000 = 1.25% return per trade putting the entire amount to work daily before commissions