The Pause That Sucks In Fools..

The markets were up today with the Nasdaq leading the way. Going into Memorial Day weekend, I expect a bounce or upward bias in the market with selling continuing once things are back in swing next week.

FSLR – Sold FSLR yesterday, will look for possible re-entry if it moves higher, nice 7% move over the past few days. The P/E is in the high 40s and the stock will get creamed if oil corrects.

SRS – The SRS for those of you that don’t follow is the ultra short Real Estate index. Anecdotal information is finally beginning to emerge that the commercial sector in real estate will not survive and thrive as the market has them priced. The SRS has had a nice bounce off the double bottom around $80. My expectation is that this will be a lot higher than the Mar top it put in before all this is over. 9 of 10 top holdings in the index were in the red today. The move on this is going to be long and sweet, now is the time to consider getting in.

Oil – IF there is speculation, expect to see further selling in the USO tomorrow as traders will not want to hold this over the Memorial Day weekend. If you believe this is a demand driven story, well… good luck I guess.

Stocks On Watchlist for Wednesday – My Trading Journal

Initiated Position in DUG at the close today. Stock is hated, reviled by most “oil has topped” investors. Certainly a risk to hold ahead of inventories but it is an initial position and one I can sleep with.

Stocks with huge volume spikes today and will be on my watch list tomorrow:

GRH, HKN, QTWW, LEI, OMNI

Another one to watch: Adolor ADLR received approval from FDA on a long awaited drug they have been co developing, conference call in the AM, stock could show strong activity in the morning.

Oil Demand? Iran Storing About 25M Barrels Of Crude In Tankers -Official

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

DUBAI (Dow Jones)–Iran is storing about 25 million barrels of heavy crude oil in tankers in the Persian Gulf as no buyers are stepping up to the plate, the country’s departing OPECOPECLoading… governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said Tuesday.

“We are using about 10-12 vessels to store the crude,” Ardebili told Dow Jones Newswires in an exclusive interview by phone from Tehran.

The stored crude is “the main proof that the market is oversupplied” and that prices are disconnected from fundamentals, he said.

“I know other countries are building up stocks as well, there are simply no buyers because the market has more than enough oil,” Ardebili, who resigned as the country’s governor to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting CountriesOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
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earlier this week after over 23 years in the position, said.

However, decreasing production is not an option, he added.

“We believe that this build up should serve at assuring the market that the oil is there if needed,” Ardebili said.

He added that Iran’s current production level is 4.1 million barrels a day, while production capacity is at about 4.3 million barrels a day.

Nymex June crude was trading down 15 cents at $125.65 a barrel on Wednesday, while ICE June Brent was trading down 19 cents at $123.91 a barrel.

-By Majdoline Hatoum, Dow Jones Newswires; +9714-3644964; majdoline.hatoum@dowjones.com

Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

14-05-08 0824GMT

Perhaps 60% of Today’s Oil Price is Pure Speculation

Comment: The mosaic is being put together by investors that this oil story has nothing to do with peak oil. Rather, it is yet another bubble created by Alan Greenspan and his boom bust economy, and now being perpetuated by Bernanke with his weak dollar and low interest rates:

The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It’s controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today’s crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?

First, the crucial role of the international oil exchanges in London and New York is crucial to the game. Nymex in New York and the ICE Futures in London today control global benchmark oil prices which in turn set most of the freely traded oil cargo. They do so via oil futures contracts on two grades of crude oil—West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent.

A third rather new oil exchange, the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), trading Dubai crude, is more or less a daughter of Nymex, with Nymex President, James Newsome, sitting on the board of DME and most key personnel British or American citizens.

Read the entire story on Financial Sense

The Energy Non Crisis – Lindsey Williams

The Energy Non Crisis – By Lindsey Williams